Buy High: Kenyan Drake

We all know the general principles of Dynasty Fantasy Football (and business in general): Buy low, sell high, dump RBs before their dust. Sometimes, however, what makes the biggest difference is when you buy “high” and still hit a jackpot. 

Think Chris Godwin, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook heading into 2019 all were bought relatively high, outperformed their ADP and are top valued assets heading into 2020. So let’s talk about the buzzworthy Kenyan Drake. 

First, a refresher of his stellar end of the season with AZ:

While those numbers are eye-popping, there is potential to increase just based on the tempo and efficiency of the Arizona offense. 

Arizona went from 29th in plays per game in 2018 (56.4), up to 21st (62.5). While this is not a drastic jump, that actually should work in your favor as public perception is that Arizona already among the fastest offenses in the game.

Which, by the way, they are. With the 4th fastest pace of play at only 25.71s in between offensive snaps.

So what picture does this paint? It tells us that the 2019 Arizona Cardinals, under rookie QB Kyler Murray and Rookie Coach Kliff Kingsbury were fast, but inefficient at sustaining drives. While their tempo was fast, that didn’t result in significantly more plays for the offense. With another full year under Kyler and Kliff’s belt, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and a full year of Kenyan Drake, I’m betting on efficiency to increase drastically. 

An improvement in offensive efficiency could result in AZ jumping to among the league leaders in total plays. With Drake being a game-script proof three-down back any increase in offense is an increase in Drake’s opportunity. Now, what about Drake’s efficiency? 

Let’s look at his YPC since joining AZ, his 5.2 YPC in 123 totes, is right up there among the league’s best: Henry (5.1 YPC), Chubb (5.0 YPC), McCaffrey (4.8 YPC). Throw in his 28 rec. and you have a very solid workload. 

Take out TD’s, let’s just look at yards and extrapolate his eight games in AZ to a full season:

1286 rush yards / 56 rec / 342 rec. yards

That’d put Drake as the fifth RB in terms of rush yards. Factor in any type of increased offensive efficiency and you’re looking at a top flight RB. As a threat in the passing game, he’s also relatively game-script proof. Are you drooling yet? 

For dynasty, he’s right in his “prime” at 26 years old, so you should get a couple years from him. AZ traded for him and felt so secure that they sent fan favorite David Johnson packing. He’ll either get a long term deal in AZ, or hit the open market next year. But before you leverage your future for Drake, let’s at least acknowledge the risk. 

What’s the downside? Over-indexing of the pass game, particularly in the red zone with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Tough defenses in-conference. Drake is a middle of the road RB2 on an uptempo offense. 

The upside? A top five RB, who’s game-script proof. 

Don’t Sleep: Nyheim Hines

A lot of movement and a lot of chatter, for what that will mean for 2020. Let’s take an early look at what this means for a potential sleeper candidate: Nyheim Hines (RB – Indianapolis Colts). 

Photo by: Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Let’s keep this brief, this is based solely on Hines’ specialized ability in the passing game and his newly acquired QB’s propensity to throw to the RB. Phillip Rivers’ RBs have combined for at least 85 rec. Each of the last three years, including 134 last year (that would’ve ranked 2nd in the league for receptions behind only Michael Thomas’ record-setting season). 

Marlon Mack’s career high in receptions is 21, so we don’t expect a major uptick there. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see Hines come back and even outperform his 2018 season of 63 rec. 425 yds. 2 TDs. At where you could get him now, he could certainly have some value in 2020. Receiving stats below comparing Rivers’ RBs to Hines’:

2019

Ekeler – 92 rec. / 108 tgts. / 993 yds. / 8 TD

Gordon – 42 rec. / 55 tgts.  / 296 yds. / 1 TD

TOTAL: 134 rec. / 163 tgts.  / 1289 yds. / 9 TD

Hines – 44 rec. / 58 tgts. / 320 yds. / 0 TD

2018

Gordon – 50 rec. / 66 tgts. / 490 yds. / 4 TD

Ekeler – 39 rec. / 53 tgts. / 404 yds. / 3 TD

TOTAL: 89 rec. / 119 tgts. / 894 yds.  / 7 TD

Hines – 63 rec. / 81 tgts.  / 425 yds. / 2 TD

2017

Gordon – 58 rec. / 83 tgts.  / 476 yds. / 4 TD

Ekeler – 27 rec. / 35 tgts. / 279 yds. / 3 TD

TOTAL: 85 rec. / 118 tgts.  / 755 yds. / 7 TD

Hines – N/A 

If you’re in a PPR league, don’t sleep on Nyheim Hines.

WTF Wednesday: Chicago Bears

Their recent signing left many of us asking WTF?

Let’s just blind resume this thing for a second:

PLAYER A Age: 26  | 2019 Stats: 11 G/ 31 Rec / 375 Yds / 3 TD / 16th Scoring Off. 

PLAYER B Age: 29  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 43 Rec / 436 Yds / 3 TD / 30th Scoring Off. 

PLAYER C Age: 30  | 2018* Stats: 13 G/ 54 Rec / 558 Yds / 2 TD / 29th Scoring Off.

PLAYER D Age: 33  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 34 Rec / 341 Yds / 7 TD  / 14th Scoring Off. 

PLAYER E Age: 33  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 38 Rec / 447 Yds / 3 TD / 15th Scoring Off.

Alright, I know these choices are worse than , but if you’re in the market for a TE why are you signing ANY of these guys for two years at 16M? By now, you know that the Chicago Bears signed Jimmy Graham to that deal.

Jimmy Graham, the newest member of the Chicago Bears. (Chicago Tribune)

With each of the other players above still available (and probably cheaper), the Graham signing left the talking heads and Twitter GMs scratching their heads.

For reference, Graham is player E, and here are the rest: 

ERIC EBRON Age: 26  | 2019 Stats: 11 G/ 31 Rec / 375 Yds / 3 TD / 16th Scoring Off. 

TYLER EIFERT Age: 29  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 43 Rec / 436 Yds / 3 TD / 30th Scoring Off.  

JORDAN REED Age: 30  | 2018* Stats: 13 G/ 54 Rec / 558 Yds / 2 TD / 29th Scoring Off. 

DARREN FELLS Age: 33  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 34 Rec / 341 Yds / 7 TD  / 14th Scoring Off. 

JIMMY GRAHAM Age: 33  | 2019 Stats: 16 G/ 38 Rec / 447 Yds / 3 TD / 15th Scoring Off. 

Now, I realize that nobody is exactly breaking away from the pack here. This group is really the island of misfit toys when it comes to the current TE landscape. Ebron playing a pseudo-back-up role and Eifert actually appearing in 16 games for the league’s worst team lead me to believe that they could be promising options.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Eric Ebron (85) celebrates touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the first half of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 25, 2018. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Graham, at 33, playing with Aaron Rodgers, without Davante Adams for some time, and only putting up 38 rec / 447 yds / 3 TD leaves a lot to be desired. And Schilling at $16M for Graham in if he’s the ONLY TE left is ridiculous. Donating $16M to the Graham Family when 26-year old Eric Ebron and 25-year-old Ricky Seals-Jones are on the board is an egregious ignorance of any form of upside. 

Maybe, maybe somehow this helps with veteran leadership, or position mentorship ,or steeling the Packers plays. I really have no idea, but somehow I’m about to cut the 6th highest paid TE, a distinction for which Jimmy Graham is tied with…Trey Burton. 

Chicago Bears, WTF?! 

2020 Early Fantasy Football Live Draft

First, the details:

Format: Best Ball (Slim – 18 man roster)
Size: 12 Team
Scoring: PPR, TE Premium (1.5 PPR)
Roster: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLX, FLX, 10x BENCH
Draft Slot: 9th

For me, the real players in contention were Travis Kelce, Julio Jones, Nick Chubb, DeAndre Hopkins and Joe Mixon. Side Note: This is the highest I’ve seen Josh Jacobs go in a re-draft format.

At 9th overall, my real decision was between Mixon and Chubb. Since this was before the Cleveland Browns locked in Austin Hooper or Jack Conklin, I was unsure of their offensive line. Plus, the presence of Kareem Hunt still gives me pause.

The TE premium certainly makes Travis Kelce a compelling target, but I consistently find value in late TEs that emerge (Mark Andrews, Darren Waller in 2019), especially in a format that rewards receptions so heavily (1.5PPR). Again, this is Best Ball, so you’re not having to set a lineup chasing TD’s. That makes it a bit easier to take a flyer at 2-3 TEs and give yourself a decent floor with upside. Same goes for WR and there’s a lot of big names on the board at this point, with six picks until my next pick, I’ll snag Kelce, Julio, Hopkins, Hill, Kittle, Adams or whoever I don’t take here of Chubb / Mixon.

I’m not on the Bengals bandwagon by any means, but I’m at least at the station. A second year head coach Zach Taylor, AJ Green returning, Joe Burrow presumably coming in, the Bengals offense is poised to take a step forward. Burrow won’t step in and immediately be Pat Mahomes, but if the floor from last season is a burned out Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley’s 23.5 QBR, I think a step forward is on the table.

Mixon had an abysmal start to 2019, but finished as RB13 (this includes a solid performance in Week 17, which matters on the field, but is often overlooked in fantasy due to season’s being wrapped). I’m not betting on the Bengals to start 0-11 this year, and I’m not betting on Mixon have a worse year than 2019. With little to no risk of losing his workload and a potential offense that is greatly improved, I made the leap for Mixon here.

Round 1 Pick 9 – Joe Mixon (RB – Cincinnati Bengals)

Kelce, Jones, Chubb are all off the board as suspected. Then Lamar Jackson goes early as the first QB taken in the second round. Guys, wait for the QB. Anyway, the Jackson pick made my freaking night because this meant I was getting Hopkins, Hill or Kittle with my next pick and I have them ranked in that order. And wouldn’t you know it? The guy who took Kelce doubled-down on TE and selected Kittle (didn’t see this coming, really thought I was going to end up with Kittle). The double TE strategy isn’t as dumb as it looks on the surface, high volume TEs have a great floor in this format and he’ll have a solid flex in terms of points – 2019 Kittle would’ve been WR6. Though they’re definitely more valuable in a format where you can trade and take advantage of positional scarcity.

Back to my pick, I got DeAndre Hopkins and I am stoked to get him here, consistency, workload, coming off a “down” year. “Down” is WR5 and just eight points shy of being WR2. This decision was not difficult and him moving to Arizona doesn’t change my outlook one bit, if anything it’s a bit better with the high tempo offense.

Round 2 Pick 4 (16th Overall) – DeAndre Hopkins (WR – Houston Texans*)

*Houston at Draft Time, but he was traded the Arizona Cardinals on March 16.

A long wait and the need for TE is increasing as two more go off the board (Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews). Lottery ticket Rookie RBs Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift are also gone.

In consideration here in Round 3 for me are: OBJ, AJ Brown, Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Mark Ingram and Devin Singletary. It is tough to go RB here, but look again, six picks until my next and that means I can get two of: Singletary, Waller, Brown, Kupp, Carson, OBJ, A Rob, and Ridley – that’s five WRs, two RBs and one TE. You know my approach on TE, so I’m going RB here.

Now I’ve seen Carson occasionally undervalued, especially in PPR formats. He might come back around to me. He also runs like an Angry Bull, you get put in concussion protocol for watching that man run, so there’s some injury concern here. I’m going upside with Devin Singletary. His 5.1 YPC are enticing and he should be suited for more work in the passing game.

Round 3 Pick 9 (33rd Overall) – Devin Singletary (RB – Buffalo Bills)

On to Round 4 and this one is easy, just like the first to second round swing, I’ve already identified my list. And then… you have the TE heavy roster of Kelce and Kittle select… Darren Waller?!

What?!

Next two off the board are Gurley and Gordon (thanks, but no thanks). If I’m taking a risk on an RB it’s on a young stud with promise, not an older RB hoping to return to glory (go ahead and steal that lesson from me Bill O’Brien). AJ Brown and Cooper Kupp follow, so my WR options are dwindling. One pick left before me and at this point I know I’m going with OBJ or Chris Carson.

It just depends… who this team takes… who does this team with three TE’s take…

HOLY SHIT

They took a running back – Chris Carson. And that leaves me with OBJ in the 4th. In a PPR format I will take this, he’s either going to stay under a new regime in Cleveland or get dealt for a King’s ransom. I know the talent is there and I have faith the workload will be there in either scenario.

Round 4 Pick 4 (40th Overall) – Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – Cleveland Browns)

Here’s how the full first four rounds shook out, let me know your thoughts.

See the full draft board here.

DYNASTY DEMON

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